The benchmark cryptocurrency fell hours after the US president reiterated his claims of extensive voter fraud. The comments spooked investors across all the riskier markets as they anticipated an uncertain US election in November. As a result, Bitcoin fell alongside global stocks and gold.
At the same time, the US dollar posted modest intraday gains, illustrating how market volatility is sending investors to the safety of cash and cash-based instruments.
Bitcoin Q3 Positive
Bitcoin remained on the course to finish the third quarter in gains, with an expected minimum return of 15 percent. That would mark the cryptocurrency’s second consecutive quarterly gain after rising more than 40 percent in Q2/2020.
But whether or not Q4/2020 would bring any further upside for Bitcoin depends on two factors: the second coronavirus stimulus package and the outcome of the November US election.
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It is because of the cryptocurrency’s erratic correlation with traditional markets as of late, especially against the global central banks’ expansionary policies that focus on maintaining lower interest rates and print more cash bills to aid their coronavirus-struck economies.
Bring more upside to the Bitcoin market was CARES, a $2 trillion coronavirus relief package from the US Congress that boosted demand for riskier assets among investors. The market is now waiting for the second stimulus. It remains pending in the Congress as the Democrats and the Republicans argue over its size.
Economists believe that the government would not the bill until the US presidential election. Nevertheless, with Trump vowing to not assuage anxieties about a contested election, should he lose, Bitcoin would keep facing an uphill battle of retaining its bullish momentum.
Technically, BTC/USD is looking better. The pair is attempting to break above the dashed descending trendline to retest the resistance of the Ascending Channel (pink). If a breakout ensues, then it could rise by as much as $650 – above $11,500.
Conversely, a pullback from the dashed line would have traders test the Channel’s lower trendline as support. There, bulls can expect to save BTC/USD from falling further, leading to a bounce-back towards the dashed line, all over again.
But if the price slips below the Channel support, then Bitcoin would risk falling below $10,400 – to retest $10,000.