Bitcoin has undergone an extremely strong rally over the past few weeks that has brought the coin as high as $18,900. The coin is up around 70 percent in the past five weeks, making it the best-performing macro asset over that time frame.
But just weeks ago, few investors thought it would move this high and this fast.
When the coin began to consolidate at $13,000-14,000 around two weeks ago, many were sure that a retracement to the $12,000 range was on the horizon. To some more conservative analysts, Bitcoin had already rallied too fast.
But one trader predicted a move to $18,500. This was “Bitcoin Jack,” a pseudonymous analyst that has accurately predicted every major macro move since the March crash.
On Mar. 13, literally hours after BTC hit $3,500, he predicted a V-shaped reversal to $10,000 by May or June. And more recently, he made the call to $18,500 as aforementioned. He bases his predictions on a number of technical trends, including Elliot Wave and market cycles, along with fundamentals.
Bitcoin Jack today announced that he is looking to short BTC for the time being, arguing in a recent tweet that he thinks a pullback will happen eventually.
He shared the chart seen below recently, which shows that Bitcoin is in the midst of breaking below a parabolic uptrend it has been situated in since the drop in September. The loss of a parabolic uptrend often indicates in crypto that a 60-80 percent retracement of the parabola will take place.
This would mean that Bitcoin moves to the $13,000 region in the weeks ahead.
Though due to there being an underlying spot institutional bid, it is unclear if the parabolic pullback will play out as many expect.
Still long-term bullish
The same trader remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin despite these short-term setbacks.
He shared the thread seen below recently, outlining some of the many fundamentally positive trends for the cryptocurrency space that should fuel a longer-term bull market.
These include but are not limited to:
- JPMorgan being bullish on Bitcoin
- Billionaires buying BTC, such as Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Michael Saylor
- PayPal launching support for cryptocurrency purchases and soon, cryptocurrency e-commerce transactions
- Grayscale buying a large amount of BTC on behalf of its institutional clients
- China mentioning Bitcoin on state television in a positive light
- The amount of BTC inactive reaching all-time highs, suggesting increased holding activity by long-term investors
- The fiat supply increasing at a rapid clip due to monetary stimulus in response to the pandemic
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