Hit or Miss: Bitcoin Price Predictions Gone Wrong in 2020

Bitcoin, the number one cryptocurrency, has again become the most talked about topic in the crypto space since 2021. The crypto has taken the bull by the horn early in the year, smashing high figures it has never hit before

Contrary to what is happening in 2021,  the early days of 2020 did not present Bitcoin as prospective by any stretch of the imagination.

The coin got analysts taking back then, having begun 2020 trading in the region of $7,000 – $8,000. Many analysts predicted several prices Bitcoin would trade at near the end of 2020.

Some were accurate with their predictions, and others were close. However, some analysts completely missed the mark, which is to be expected.

Below are some of those predictions that failed to come near the actual reality at the end of the day.

Gavin Smith’s $7,000 prediction

The Pandora CEO, in an interview with Forbes, said Bitcoin was going to end 2020 near the $7,000 range.

The CEO gave this prediction at a time BTC showed a lot of prospects after picking up from its low during mid-March. One BTC was trading around $9,500 as there were doubts BTC would break $10,000 at the time. A retrace would have been logical, but the market decided otherwise.

Antoni Trenchev over-optimistic estimate

Trenchev is a co-founder at Nexo. He predicted that Bitcoin was going to trade at $50,000 in 2020. He explained that Bitcoin was the ‘new gold’ and said its price wouldn’t correlate with the traditional market. Even though that is true to a certain extent, his price target was ahead of tis time.

Gold, USD/OZ vs. S&P 500 Source: TradingView

From the graph above, Trenchev prediction is wrong as gold traded in tandem with traditional markets for the larger part of 2020.The direction of both markets was the same until November when both prices steered clear of each other.

It brings a dilemma of what way “the new gold” has to go since Trenchev said it would not align with traditional markets. The year 2021 will prove rather interesting in this regard.

Cryptowhale Metrics Fail

Popular Bitcoin analyst on Twitter, Cryptowhale, introduces a quantum model that would predict BTC price by the end of the year. The analyst said the model predicted effectively every major Bitcoin move since 2018. The model indicated that BTC would hit $24,000 by the middle of 2022.

According to Cryptowhale, the model was going to give accurate predictions. Attempts to extract Cryptowhale’s chart portraying his prediction was futile. The Twitter analyst already deleted the tweet.

CryptoWhale’s failed quantum model predicting $24,000 by 2022. He deleted the tweet
Bitcoin price prediction
A screenshot of his tweet from Archive.org

Even then, a complex price prediction model can make mistakes like human beings.

Ross Ulbricht underestimates Bitcoin

Ross founded the now defunct Silk Road darknet market. During the March plunge, he predicted that Bitcoin volatility would lead to a bear market that would last for three to nine months. Bitcoin traded around $7,000 back then.

Days after his prediction, BTC surged over 30 percent, trading around $9,000, invalidating his analysis.Cryptocurrencies remain unpredictable, regardless of how thorough one’s analyssi may be.

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