Originally, Bitcoin was launched in 2009, while only the introduction (bitcoin.org) and Whitepaper was published in 2008. However, as the design’s original four plan got deviated by about 2 months, the halving schedule now co-indices with the Leap Year.
According to the original design, the halving must occur at ever 210,000 blocks. Since, the block time is about 10 minutes, it takes about 3.99 years to reach that height. The first Bitcoin halving happened in November 2012, followed by July 2016.
Nevertheless, the variation in the total hashing power and difficulty adjustments usually keep it under 10 minutes. However, during the bull run of 2017, the block time increased due to transaction traffic. Currently, the average time to mine each block is about 9.67 minutes.
Hence, the co-incidence might not hold for longer than this decade.
Halving has been bullish in the 10 year history of bitcoin. Since, the halving reduces the miner rewards, the has had to positive effect on the price. The market players look to balance the supply and demand price for generation of Bitcoin.
Jack Purdy, from Messari Research tweeted on the significance of 29th Feb,
Studies show the single GREATEST factor in starting a bull-run for bitcoin has been the presence of February 29th 🚀
Which, for those who didn’t know… is tomorrow 👀📈 pic.twitter.com/bwghSCFoLn
— Jack Purdy (@jpurd17) February 28, 2020
However, Purdy and Watkins also note that the event is a self-fulfilling prophecy at best. He tweeted,
PS: Even if bitcoin goes up in the next year that doesn’t mean it was a result of the halving (or the leap year)
The miners usually prepare themselves ahead of halving. Nevertheless, as ‘hash rate follows price’, an increase in the price keeps the old miners alive.
Recently, as reported on Coingape, the current drop in Bitcoin has also been consistent with historic price movements before halving. However, one other factor that might be keeping bulls at bay is the fact that price has dipped after reaching the highs in bullish hysteria.
In 2016, the price was actually bearish during the mining, after a swift rise a month earlier. With less than 75 days left to Bitcoin mining, the recent bullish price action seem to suggest that we might see another parabolic upside movement.
Moreovre, the price continues to hold above the 200-Day Moving average and bullish market structure above $8200. Hence, the long-term bulls are primarily in play.
Last but not the least, on whether or not the halving is priced in. The halving is always priced in, with the strong bullish inclination before, and bearish inclination around it. The market players continue to leverage the past price action and current market conditions to make profits.
Do you think that the bulls for halving are in? Please share your views with us.